Picture this: you're at an art auction, you throw out your bid with confidence, and then the guy next to you — the one you swore couldn't afford a damn thing — tops your offer with a grin on his face and even agrees to pay the penalty if the deal falls through.
Yeah. That's exactly what Paramount Skydance just did to Netflix in the fight for Warner Bros. Discovery.
The Circus Is on Fire
On Thursday, the Warner Bros. Discovery board dropped the bomb: Paramount Skydance's latest offer — $31 per share, all cash — was deemed superior to the deal already signed with Netflix.
This triggers a contractual mechanism that gives Netflix four business days to revise its proposal. Four days. On a deal worth over $80 billion in enterprise value. Tick-tock, Sarandos.
For context: Netflix had locked in a deal back in December to buy WBD's studio and streaming businesses for $27.75 per share, valuing the assets at around $72 billion. A monumental deal. Looked like a done deal.
But Paramount, led by David Ellison — son of Oracle's Larry Ellison, meaning this guy doesn't need to run a lemonade stand to pay the bills — decided to come in with a hostile bid and kept raising the stakes like a poker player who knows he's got the chips to back the bluff. Except it's not a bluff.
The Numbers That Matter
Here's what Paramount put on the table:
- $31 per share, all cash (up from $30 in the previous offer)
- The bid is for all of WBD — including pay TV channels like CNN, TBS, and TNT
- A $7 billion breakup fee if regulators kill the deal
- And a commitment to pay the $2.8 billion penalty that WBD would owe Netflix for walking away from that agreement
Read that right? Paramount is saying: "I'll pay for your divorce and still take you out to dinner." That's real skin in the game, as Taleb would say.
Sarandos's Chess Game
Last week, Netflix gave WBD a seven-day waiver to reopen talks with Paramount. Ted Sarandos, Netflix's co-CEO, explained the decision with that polished corporate tone: he wanted to give "clarity and certainty" to WBD shareholders, since Paramount was "flooding the zone with confusion."
Translating from corporate-speak to plain English: Paramount was making so much noise directly with shareholders that Netflix figured it was better to just lay all the cards on the table at once.
But here's the detail nobody's talking about: Sarandos didn't commit to raising the offer. In his CNBC interview, he dodged the question like a politician at a congressional hearing.
And that same Thursday, the guy showed up at the White House for a meeting about Netflix's acquisition efforts. Didn't meet with Trump, they say. But let's be real — when the CEO of the biggest streaming platform on the planet goes to Washington in the middle of a deal this size, it's not for a cup of coffee.
The Board Is Playing Both Sides
Here's where it starts reading like a TV script (fitting, given the context): the WBD board declared Paramount's offer as superior, but at the same time continues recommending the Netflix deal. They didn't withdraw or modify their original recommendation.
This is the corporate equivalent of saying: "Look, the other guy offered more, but we're still with you... for now."
In practice, it's pure pressure. They're forcing Netflix to raise its offer in the next four days or accept that it lost.
So Now What?
The $80 billion question: will Netflix match it?
If they go up to $32, $33 per share, the tab gets heavy. Netflix's balance sheet is strong, but it's not infinite. And every extra dollar per share means billions more on the final check.
If they don't raise, they lose the biggest package of legacy media assets on the market — CNN, HBO, Warner Bros. Studios, the entire catalog.
David Ellison is playing the Joker's game: "If you're good at something, never do it for free." And he's clearly good at buying companies.
Sarandos has four days. The clock is ticking.
The real question is: when two billionaires fight over a media empire, do the WBD shareholders actually win — or is this just another round of the circus where retail investors get the crumbs?
