Let me tell you something that the pretty-boy analyst on cable TV won't say this plainly: war is inflation. Always has been. Always will be.
It doesn't matter how much the Fed prints, how much the government talks about "energy transition," or how many finance influencers post colorful charts on Instagram — when missiles fly, the price at the pump goes up. Simple as that. Brutal as that.
The Cold, Hard Facts
Gasoline in the United States crossed the $3.50 per gallon mark, hitting its highest level since 2024. The reason? The conflict between the United States and Iran, which stopped being a "geopolitical tension" — that beautiful euphemism journalists love so much — and turned into an actual war.
For those who like to convert: $3.50 a gallon works out to roughly R$ 5.00 per liter at the current exchange rate. "Oh, but in Brazil we already pay more than that!" — easy there, buddy. The problem isn't the absolute price. The problem is the direction of the arrow. And the arrow is pointing up.
The Domino Effect Nobody Wants to See
When gas prices rise in the U.S., it's not just the average American crying while filling up his F-150 pickup. Oil is the backbone of the global economy. It's the blood running through the veins of trade, logistics, agriculture, everything.
More expensive oil means:
- More expensive freight — and guess who pays? You, at the grocery store.
- More expensive agricultural commodities — diesel for the tractor, fuel for the bulk carrier ship.
- Global inflationary pressure — including here in Brazil, which really didn't need another headache.
Remember what Nassim Taleb says about fat-tail events? Yeah. Nobody was pricing in an open U.S.-Iran war. The banks' risk models treated this as a low-probability scenario. And now? Now the black swan is sitting in your living room, sipping your coffee, and asking for the Wi-Fi password.
The Geopolitical Matrix
Here's the red pill: Iran isn't some rinky-dink little country. It's the fourth-largest holder of oil reserves in the world and controls — directly or indirectly — the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of all globally traded oil passes.
If this shit escalates — and conflicts have the nasty habit of escalating — we're talking $100, $120, maybe $150 a barrel of Brent. And at that point, my friend, you can throw in the trash any projection for inflation, interest rates, Brazil's Selic rate, any damn thing.
The financial market is great at pricing in what already happened. It's terrible at pricing in what might happen.
What Does Brazil Have to Do With This?
Everything. Brazil has everything to do with this.
We're oil exporters, which in theory is good — Petrobras says thank you, the stock tends to ride the barrel price wave. But we're importers of refined products, because our refining capacity can't keep up. So the price at the pump goes up here too.
And there's more: the dollar strengthens in wartime scenarios. Strong dollar + expensive oil = more expensive fuel in Brazil = more inflation = Central Bank under pressure = higher interest rates for longer = expensive credit = economy spinning its wheels.
It's a vicious cycle that starts with a missile in the Middle East and ends with your mortgage getting more expensive.
Where Is This Headed?
Honestly? Nobody knows. And anyone who tells you they do is either lying or selling a course.
What I do know is this: people with skin in the game — real money at risk — aren't making predictions. They're protecting themselves. Commodity hedges, oil exposure, cash in dollars, defensive positioning.
Warren Buffett didn't sit on $300 billion in cash at Berkshire because he's a coward. He did it because he's the smartest guy in the room and knows that when the music stops, the ones left standing are the ones who kept their powder dry.
The question remains: are you dancing or are you near the exit?
Because when the Strait of Hormuz closes — if it closes — there won't be time to think.
