While the average American is trying to figure out why the grocery bill won't stop climbing, Stephen Miran — the guy Donald Trump planted inside the Federal Reserve — goes on CNBC to say that inflation isn't a problem.
Read that again. Slowly.
"I don't think we have an inflation problem."
That came out of the mouth of a Fed governor. On a day when the U.S. shed 92,000 jobs — the February payroll came in negative for the first time in a long while, and the guy basically said: "Chill out, folks, the problem is something else."
The backstory behind the character
For those who don't follow the Washington circus, Stephen Miran was nominated by Trump to fill the seat of Adriana Kugler, who bounced in August 2025. Since he parked himself in that chair, the guy has dissented at every single FOMC meeting. Every one. No exceptions.
When the committee cut by 0.25%, he wanted 0.50%. When the committee held rates in January, he wanted to cut 0.25%. The pattern is crystal clear: Miran is a dove with a megaphone, doing exactly what his boss in the White House wants — lower rates, more economic stimulus, a narrative that everything's just peachy.
If he could, rates would already be around 2.75%, a full percentage point below the current range of 3.50% to 3.75%. He calls that "neutral." The consensus among Fed directors in December put neutral at 3.1% — which would imply two more cuts. Miran wants to go further.
The mental gymnastics on inflation
This is where it gets juicy.
Miran argues that persistently high inflation numbers are more of a measurement problem than a reality problem. His example? Portfolio management fees. Since those fees are charged as a percentage of assets, when the stock market goes up, the dollar value of those fees goes up — even if the percentage rate charged doesn't change.
Is it a technical argument? Sure. Does it have some validity? It does. But using that as a crutch to say "we don't have an inflation problem" is like saying the thermometer is broken because the fever doesn't match your diagnosis.
It's the oldest trick in the book: when the data doesn't confirm your thesis, attack the data.
And what about oil prices spiking because of the war with Iran? Miran pulled out that central banker classic: "The Fed typically doesn't react to oil shocks. It's a one-off event."
One-off. Sure. As if the guy at the gas pump gives a damn about the distinction between core inflation and headline inflation. The bill shows up just the same, buddy.
The political game nobody pretends not to see
Let's be grown-ups here. Kevin Warsh has already been nominated by Trump for a position that will replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. Miran is serving on a technically expired term since January, keeping the seat warm until a successor is confirmed.
What we have is a Fed being slowly reshaped in the image and likeness of what the White House wants. Lower rates, weaker dollar, economy stimulated at any cost.
This isn't conspiracy theory. It's a script written in giant block letters.
Nassim Taleb would ask: what's the skin in the game for a politically appointed governor who always dissents in the same direction? He doesn't lose money if he's wrong. He doesn't foot the bill for whatever inflation eventually shows up. The one who pays is you, with whatever currency you've got in your pocket.
The bloody payroll
Back to what matters: minus 92,000 jobs. That's ugly. There's no sugarcoating this one.
Three consecutive 0.25% cuts in the second half of 2025 brought rates from 4.50% down to 3.75%. Did the job market respond? Apparently not. And Miran's answer is the same as always: cut more.
The question nobody at CNBC asked — and that I'm asking right here — is simple:
If three cuts couldn't hold up employment, what makes you think the fourth or fifth will?
When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. When the only answer you have is cutting rates, every problem looks like a lack of stimulus.
What if the problem is something else? What if it's the war, the political uncertainty, the tariff protectionism that the government itself is pushing?
Damn, sometimes the most honest answer is: "We don't know." But honesty doesn't get ratings on CNBC.
