"Compute equals revenue."
Jensen Huang repeated that phrase so many times on the earnings call it sounded like a religious mantra. And maybe that's exactly what it is — because in the temple of artificial intelligence, Nvidia is the cathedral, the pope, and the tithe all rolled into one.
The Number That Shut Everyone Up
Let's get straight to the punch: Nvidia projected revenue of $78 billion for the current quarter. Growth of 77% year over year. The "consensus analysts" — the same ones who miss more than they hit — were expecting $72.6 billion. The difference? A measly $5.4 billion above estimates. For a lot of companies out there, that's their entire annual revenue.
And the craziest part: this marks an acceleration in growth. Last quarter, expansion was 62%. Now it jumped back to 73% in the reported quarter and the guidance suggests 77%. While the market was expecting deceleration, Jensen Huang hit them with a "hold my beer."
Eleventh consecutive quarter with growth above 55%. Read that again. Eleven quarters. Some people can't hold a relationship together for eleven weeks, and this man in a leather jacket is delivering monster growth like it's no big deal.
Vera Rubin: The Next Beast Is Out of Its Cage
The big news that nobody should be ignoring: Vera Rubin has started shipping. Colette Kress, Nvidia's CFO, confirmed on the call that the first samples were sent to customers "earlier this week."
For those who don't follow chip-speak: Vera Rubin is the next-generation rack-scale system that succeeds Grace Blackwell. We're talking 72 next-gen GPUs that deliver — brace yourself — 10x more performance per watt than their predecessors.
Ten times. Not 10% more. Ten times.
That's the equivalent of swapping a beat-up Honda Civic for a Tesla Model S in terms of efficiency. And Kress went on to say that Nvidia expects every major AI model builder and every cloud provider to eventually adopt the system. The company already revised upward its revenue opportunity projection of $500 billion combining Blackwell and Rubin.
"We believe we have inventory and supply commitments to meet future demand, including deliveries extending into 2027," Kress said. Translation: they've already got locked-in orders for next year. Sleep on that.
But What About the Competition? And the Risks?
Look, I'm nobody's fanboy. Every investment has risk, and anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to sell you a course.
AMD is coming in with Helios, its first rack-scale system for AI. Meta committed to deploying up to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs. Amazon and Google are developing their own chips. In Nvidia's own annual report, the company admitted that a potential risk is "customers developing their own internal solutions."
And then there's the elephant in the room nobody wants to face: the long-term projections. According to LSEG, Nvidia's growth is expected to drop from 63% this fiscal year to 30%, then 11.5%, and finally 3% over the following three years. If that plays out, we're looking at a company worth nearly $5 trillion growing at 3%.
This is where battle-hardened Warren Buffett would say: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." The question that matters is how much of that glorious future is already baked into the price.
What Jensen Gets That the Market Hasn't Digested Yet
The phrase "compute equals revenue" isn't an empty slogan. It's the entire thesis condensed into three words. In the era of agentic AI — which goes way beyond that ChatGPT your nephew uses to do his homework — every company that wants revenue needs compute. And the one selling shovels in the digital gold rush is Nvidia.
The stock barely moved in after-hours trading. Know why? Because expectations were already insane. When you're the most valuable company on the planet, beating expectations is an obligation, not an achievement.
But here's the question I want you to take to bed with you: if Nvidia is accelerating growth when everyone expected deceleration, and if Vera Rubin really is the beast it appears to be...
...who's to say those pessimistic projections of 3% growth out in 2029 won't get steamrolled exactly the way today's were?
Think about that before you sell.