There's a scene in The Wolf of Wall Street where Jordan Belfort, at peak cocaine, looks at the chaos around him and says everything's under control. Nobody believes him. Not even himself.
Damn, that's exactly what we're living through right now.
The Cold, Hard Facts
Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures opened Sunday night with the entire market holding its breath — eyes locked on oil prices. Last week, the Dow cratered 453 points in a single session while crude oil surged on the U.S.-Iran conflict.
And what are the odds of relief?
Zero.
Tehran rejected any ceasefire talks. On the other side, Trump declared — with his trademark subtlety — that war with Iran "is very popular with his base." Translation from Trumpese to plain English: there's no off-ramp. No emergency exit. The train is barreling full speed toward the wall.
The market fell "solidly to sharply" for the week — that's Investor's Business Daily's polished jargon for saying it was a total shitshow. Every major index got hammered.
Oil: The Real Main Character
Forget artificial intelligence for a second. Forget Nvidia, forget Oracle's data centers with OpenAI (by the way, that expansion plan was apparently shelved — curious timing, huh?).
The lead actor in this market right now is the barrel of oil.
When crude spikes, it works like an invisible tax on the entire economy. Higher transportation costs, higher manufacturing costs, higher food costs. The CPI — the consumer price index — has fresh data dropping this week. If it comes in hot, and there's plenty of pressure for that, the Fed is cornered: it can't cut rates with inflation rising, and the stock market is desperately begging for cuts.
It's what Taleb would call an existential squeeze. The system is being crushed by self-reinforcing forces. War pushes oil up. Oil pushes inflation up. Inflation keeps rates high. High rates massacre valuations. Falling valuations spook investors. Spooked investors sell. And the cycle accelerates.
Who's Winning Here?
Ah, this is where it gets interesting.
While the Dow and Nasdaq were bleeding out, General Dynamics — maker of weapons, tanks, and nuclear submarines — was approaching a buy point. Right alongside it, defense stocks are leading the "stocks near buy points" lists.
Palantir, Peter Thiel's surveillance and military data company, defied the market selloff and landed on IBD's best stocks lists. Twenty-three stocks in total ignored the broad-based sell-off — and most of them have some connection to the military-industrial complex or defensive sectors.
This isn't conspiracy theory. It's simply how money works. Capital is amoral. It goes where the returns are. If the world is at war, money buys whoever's making the war.
Warren Buffett once said you should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. But he was also never dumb enough to go buying in the middle of a hurricane without understanding which way the wind was blowing.
What Investors Need to Understand
If you have exposure to American assets — and many of you do, through ETFs, ADRs, or overseas accounts — now is the time for maximum attention, not blind panic.
U.S. unemployment ticked up. Inflation data drops this week. Oil is in war mode. And the American president has zero political incentive to back down.
That means volatility is here to stay for a good while.
Healthcare stocks like HCA Healthcare and retail names like TJX are near buy zones — more defensive sectors that make sense in a risk-averse environment. Dividend plays like AT&T and Equinix are also on the radar. The market is telling you where to look for shelter.
But shelter isn't the same thing as opportunity.
The Question Nobody Wants to Ask
The market prices everything in, the academics say. But is it pricing in a war that neither side wants to end?
When Trump says the conflict is popular and Iran says it won't negotiate, what exactly is the algorithm supposed to calculate as the probability of resolution?
The efficient market Matrix has a bug: it assumes decision-makers are rational. But the ones with actual skin in the game here — really, with blood on the ground — aren't the politicians making statements for the cameras. It's the soldiers, the civilians, and yes, your portfolio.
Are you prepared for a scenario where this doesn't end in weeks, but in months? Where oil stays above $120 and the Fed doesn't cut a single thing in 2026?
If your answer is "I hadn't thought about that" — you better start thinking now.
Because the circus tent is up. And this time, nobody's laughing.
